Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Jarvis Bucktooth, and I'm just an everyday citizen from New York writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets. I think they provide real value to people like me and to society as a whole, and I want to explain why I believe the CFTC should regulate them proportionately rather than impose heavy restrictions or bans.
I first got into prediction markets because I wanted better information about things that affect my life, like election outcomes or economic events. I've found that the forecasts on these platforms are often more accurate than what I hear from polls or pundits on TV. That kind of insight isn't just helpful for trading; it helps me make better decisions in my day-to-day life. Beyond that, I use these markets to hedge personal financial risks. For example, I've placed trades to offset potential impacts of policy changes or inflation data on my budget. This isn't gambling to me. It takes research and judgment, just like investing in stocks. Classifying event contracts as "gaming," as discussed in Questions 15-22 of the ANPR, ignores the legitimate economic purposes they serve, like hedging and price discovery.
I'm also concerned about what happens if these markets get over-regulated or banned. Right now, platforms like Kalshi operate under CFTC oversight, which makes me feel safer as a trader. If restrictions push activity to unregulated offshore sites, as touched on in Questions 7-14 about public interest, consumers like me lose protections. I believe the U.S. should be leading in financial innovation, not ceding ground to other countries. Plus, the CFTC already has strong tools to tackle manipulation and insider trading, as noted in Questions 1-6 and 29-32. Why not use those instead of broad bans? Informed trading actually improves price discovery, benefiting everyone, not just traders.
I've read academic studies showing how prediction markets aggregate information efficiently, and I think that kind of transparency is good for public decision-making. Addressing Questions 33-40 on costs and benefits, I urge the CFTC to focus on targeted rules for specific risks rather than categorical prohibitions that hurt regular people like me who value the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets.
Please support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. They offer unique benefits for forecasting, hedging, and innovation, and with the right oversight, they can thrive safely. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Jarvis Bucktooth
