Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Eliezert Valle, and I'm an everyday citizen from California writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I'm not an expert or a big-time trader, just someone who sees the value in these markets and wants to make sure theyre regulated in a fair way.
Im pretty new to prediction markets, but Ive been reading up on them, and Im really supportive of what they can do. To me, theyre not about gambling at all. Theyre a tool for figuring out whats likely to happen in the world, whether its an election, a policy change, or some economic event. That kind of information helps everyone, not just the people trading. I think its wrong to label event contracts as gaming when they serve real purposes, like helping people hedge against uncertainty or just understand whats coming down the line. Its more like investing in stocks than playing slots at a casino; it takes research and thought.
What I care about most is making sure the CFTC doesnt overreact with broad bans or heavy-handed rules. I get that there are risks, like manipulation or insider trading, but shutting down entire categories of markets or making it impossible for regular folks like me to participate isnt the answer. Instead, I think you should focus on targeted rules that deal with specific problems. Punishing everyone because a few might act badly doesnt seem fair. Plus, the CFTC already has tools to go after manipulation, right? Use those, and adapt them if needed, but dont throw the baby out with the bathwater.
I also believe that informed trading is a good thing for these markets. When people who know a lot about a topic trade, it makes the prices more accurate. That benefits all of us, because better predictions help businesses, policymakers, and even regular people make smarter decisions. Im looking at questions 29 through 32 in your ANPR about inside information, and Id say dont crack down so hard that you scare off knowledgeable traders. Insider trading is already illegal, so enforce that, but dont assume everyone with an edge is a bad actor.
Im asking you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Keep them open to people like me, and focus on rules that tackle real risks without killing innovation or access. California is a place that thrives on new ideas, and Id hate to see the U.S. fall behind on something this useful.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Eliezert Valle
