Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Caden Buiting, and I'm a business owner based in Florida. Im writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I actively trade on platforms like Kalshi, and I strongly support the CFTC crafting sensible, proportionate regulations for prediction markets rather than imposing heavy restrictions or outright bans.
As someone running a business, I rely on accurate information to make decisions, especially when it comes to things like elections or major public events that can impact my bottom line. Prediction markets have consistently given me better forecasts than polls or pundits. Ive seen firsthand how the prices on these platforms cut through the noise and reflect whats really likely to happen. This isnt just helpful for me; its valuable for anyone trying to plan ahead, whether they trade or not. That kind of insight shouldnt be stifled by overregulation.
I also use prediction markets to hedge risks tied to my business and personal finances. For instance, election outcomes can shift tax policies or regulations that directly affect my operations. Being able to hedge against those uncertainties on a platform like Kalshi gives me a safety net I cant get anywhere else. Its not gambling; its a practical tool, just like any other financial instrument I might use to manage risk.
Heres my concern, though. If the CFTC clamps down too hard or bans certain types of event contracts, people like me wont just stop trading. Well get pushed to unregulated offshore platforms that dont have the safeguards of a CFTC-registered market. Id much rather trade on a regulated exchange like Kalshi, where theres oversight and transparency, than take my chances somewhere sketchy. Banning or over-restricting these markets doesnt solve problems; it creates new ones by driving activity out of sight.
I also think the U.S. should be leading the way on financial innovation. If we overregulate prediction markets, we risk handing the future of this technology to other countries that are more willing to embrace it. Weve got the chance to set the standard here, and I hope the CFTC sees that as a priority.
Addressing a few of your specific questions, like those in the Public Interest section (Questions 7-14), I believe prediction markets serve a clear public good through better forecasting and risk management. On the issue of regulated versus unregulated platforms, as raised in other parts of the ANPR, I urge you to focus on strengthening domestic, regulated markets rather than pushing traders offshore.
I recognize there are risks, like potential manipulation or insider trading, but the CFTC already has tools to tackle those issues. Dont punish the rest of us by limiting access to these valuable markets. I ask that you support proportionate regulation that keeps prediction markets accessible while addressing specific concerns with targeted rules.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Caden Buiting
