Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Miguel Afonso, and Im just an everyday citizen from Maryland, living on Portugal Street, a nod to my roots in Portugal. Im writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). Ill admit, Im not sure why I received a notice about this, and Im pretty new to prediction markets myself, but Ive been learning about them and strongly support their existence under fair regulation. I believe regular people like me should have the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets like these.
I see prediction markets as a unique tool. Theyre not just for big investors or institutions; they let ordinary folks get involved in understanding and forecasting real-world events. For me, its not about making a quick buck but more about engaging with the world in a new way. Some people might even use these markets for fun or to relax, and I think that should be okay as long as the system is clear, transparent, and protected against fraud. There need to be strong checks and balances to keep things fair, no question about that.
Im concerned, though, about the idea of broad bans or overly harsh rules. I dont think shutting down entire categories of contracts or limiting who can participate is the right approach. Instead, Id urge the CFTC to focus on proportionate, targeted regulation that deals with specific problems like manipulation or insider trading without punishing everyone else. From what Ive read, the CFTC already has tools to go after bad actors in other markets. Why not use those same powers here rather than creating sweeping restrictions? Im particularly interested in your questions on balancing innovation with consumer protection, like in Question 7 under the Public Interest section. I believe we can have both if the rules are smart and focused.
Prediction markets also seem like they could give people like me a chance to hedge against uncertainties in life, whether its an election outcome or an economic policy change that hits close to home. Banning or over-regulating them would just push activity to unregulated, offshore platforms, which feels riskier to me. Id rather see the US lead on this and keep things safe and above board.
Im no expert, but I hope my perspective as a regular person matters. Please support fair and balanced regulation of prediction markets. Dont ban them or make it so hard that only big players can participate. Lets keep this open to everyday citizens like me, with strong safeguards to prevent fraud and abuse.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Miguel Afonso
