Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Aiden Campbell, and I'm a trader and investor based in Texas. I've been working in financial markets for a while now, and I wanted to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've used prediction markets a few times myself, and I strongly support having access to legal, regulated platforms for these kinds of event contracts.
I believe prediction markets are a valuable tool, not just for people like me who trade regularly, but for anyone looking to hedge risks or gain insight into future events. The information these markets provide often beats out polls or expert opinions, and that's something we all benefit from. I've used them to make informed decisions, and I know others do too. What's more, participating in these markets isn't gambling. It takes research and real-world judgment, just like trading stocks or commodities. I don't see why everyday folks like me should be shut out of a system that big institutions can access. Keeping these markets open to regular traders makes the information more accurate and the playing field a bit fairer.
What really matters to me is the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Platforms like Kalshi, which operate under CFTC oversight, are far safer than unregulated offshore sites. If you ban or overly restrict prediction markets here in the US, you're not stopping the activity. You're just pushing it to places with no rules, no oversight, and no protection for traders like me. I've seen what happens in unregulated spaces, and it's not pretty. Fraud, manipulation, and outright scams are rampant. I'd much rather trade on a platform where the CFTC is watching out for bad actors.
Regarding some of the specific questions in the ANPR, I think Question 7 on balancing innovation and consumer protection hits the nail on the head. Regulated markets are the answer, not bans. And on Question 29 about insider trading, Ill say this: the laws against it already exist, and the CFTC has the power to enforce them. Shutting down entire markets to stop a few cheaters is like closing a highway because some people speed. Use the tools you have instead of punishing everyone.
I urge you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Don't ban or over-restrict them. Keep platforms like Kalshi available for traders like me who want to participate in a safe, legal environment. Thanks for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Aiden Campbell
