Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is John Duszynski, and I'm just a regular guy from Illinois who cares about having a fair shot at understanding the world around us. I'm writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, published in the Federal Register as 91 FR 12516. I've been trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I want to share why I think well-regulated prediction markets are valuable and should not be over-restricted or banned.
I rely on prediction markets for information that I can't get anywhere else. When it comes to elections or big public events, I've seen firsthand how these markets often predict outcomes better than polls or TV pundits. Last year, I followed the market odds on a major election, and they were way closer to the actual result than any survey I saw. That kind of insight helps me make sense of what's happening, and I think its a public good for everyone, not just traders like me. Its not gambling, either. I put in time to research and think through whats likely to happen, just like I would with any investment. Calling event contracts "gaming" feels wrong to me; they have a real purpose in figuring out what the future might hold, much like trading stocks or commodities.
I also believe that everyday people like me should have the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. If only big institutions or insiders get access, then theyre the only ones who benefit from this information. Letting regular folks trade makes the system fairer and honestly makes the predictions sharper because more voices are in the mix. I worry that over-regulating or banning these markets would just push activity to unregulated offshore sites, which are way less safe.
Looking at some of the questions in the ANPR, I want to touch on a couple. On Question 7, about balancing innovation and consumer protection, I think the CFTC can protect people like me by focusing on strong oversight of platforms like Kalshi, not by shutting them down. And on Question 15, about defining gaming versus legitimate markets, I strongly feel event contracts arent gaming. Theyre tools for forecasting and managing uncertainty, and I use them that way.
I know there are concerns about things like insider trading or manipulation. But those are already illegal, right? The CFTC has the power to go after bad actors without punishing everyone else by restricting these markets. Banning prediction markets because of a few cheaters would be like closing the stock market over insider trading. Its not fair and its not the answer.
I urge you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Keep them legal and accessible under clear, fair rules, and dont let heavy-handed restrictions stop the benefits they bring to people like me. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
John Duszynski
