Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Luis Madrigal, and I'm a trader and investor based in Delaware. I've been trading stocks and futures for years now, and it's become a significant part of how I make a living and plan for my future. More recently, I've started actively trading on prediction markets like Kalshi, and Im writing to express my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to your Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I believe these markets are valuable, not just for me, but for society as a whole, and I hope the CFTC will regulate them in a balanced way.
Trading on prediction markets has given me access to information I can't get anywhere else. The prices on these platforms often predict outcomes for elections or public events more accurately than polls or pundits. I've seen this firsthand, and it helps me make better decisions, not just in trading but in understanding what's really happening in the world. I think this kind of price discovery benefits everyone, from regular folks like me to policymakers who need reliable data. Plus, these aren't games of chance. Trading on event contracts takes research and judgment, just like trading stocks or futures. Calling them "gaming" feels wrong when they serve real economic purposes, like hedging risks or aggregating information.
I'm also concerned about freedom to participate. Prediction markets let everyday traders like me have a stake in understanding major events. If only big institutions can play, all that valuable info stays locked up with them. I worry that over-restricting these markets would push activity to unregulated offshore platforms, which are far riskier for consumers. Regulated markets, like those under the CFTCs oversight, are the safer bet. And honestly, the US should be leading the way in financial innovation, not falling behind other countries.
I know there are concerns about manipulation or insider trading, and I get that. But the CFTC already has strong tools to tackle those issues in other markets, and I believe they can be applied here too. Banning or over-restricting prediction markets to stop a few bad actors feels like punishing the rest of us who use these tools responsibly. Specifically, regarding your questions in Topic Area B (Questions 7-14) on public interest and innovation versus consumer protection, I urge you to prioritize rules that support access while addressing risks through existing enforcement powers. And on Topic Area C (Questions 15-22) about defining gaming, I strongly feel event contracts shouldn't be lumped in with gambling since they have clear economic value.
I hope the CFTC will craft proportionate regulations that allow prediction markets to thrive under proper oversight. Don't ban or over-restrict them. Let traders like me continue to participate in a legal, regulated environment that benefits everyone through better information and forecasting.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Luis Madrigal
