Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Daniel Arriaga, and I'm a trader and investor from Illinois. I've been actively trading on prediction markets like Kalshi for a while now, and Im writing to express my strong support for the proportionate regulation of these markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I believe these markets have real value, both for me personally and for society, and I want to share why I think the CFTC should support their growth with fair rules, not bans or overly tight restrictions.
Trading on Kalshi has been a game-changer for me. It's not just about making a profit, though thats a real possibility that can improve lives financially. It's about having access to unique information and tools that help me make better decisions. For example, I've used Kalshi to hedge personal financial risks tied to economic events like inflation data releases that impact my budget for groceries and rent. Its a practical way to manage uncertainty, much like how I approach traditional investments. Classifying event contracts as "gaming" feels wrong to me because they serve legitimate economic purposes like hedging and discovery, as Im sure youre exploring in Questions 15-22 about listed activities.
I also see prediction markets as a space where regular people like me can participate in a fair, regulated environment. Kalshi, as a CFTC-registered platform, offers transparency and safety that you just don't get with unregulated offshore sites. If the U.S. over-restricts or bans these markets, activity will just move to less safe venues, which hurts everyone. On that note, addressing Questions 7-14 on public interest, I think the U.S. has a chance to lead in financial innovation here. We shouldn't cede this space to other countries. Lets set the standard with smart regulation instead.
One more point I care about is how informed trading actually helps everyone. When people with knowledge trade, the prices get more accurate, and that benefits all participants by giving us better data to work with. I know there are concerns about insider trading, as raised in Questions 29-32, but I believe the answer isn't to shut down markets. It's to enforce the laws already in place against misuse of nonpublic information and market manipulation. The CFTC already has tools for this in other markets, so let's adapt them here rather than punishing honest traders.
I urge you to support prediction markets with balanced rules that protect consumers while allowing innovation and freedom to participate. Don't let over-regulation push this valuable tool offshore or out of reach for people like me who use it responsibly. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Daniel Arriaga
