Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Ernesto Cisneros, and I'm just a regular guy from New Mexico writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. Im not an expert or a lawyer, just someone who actively trades on platforms like Kalshi and believes these markets are valuable and worth protecting with fair rules.
Ive been using prediction markets for a while now, and I can tell you theyre not just a hobby. They give me insights I cant find anywhere else. Ive seen firsthand how their forecasts often beat out polls or TV pundits when it comes to predicting election results or economic shifts. That kind of information isnt just useful for traders like me; it helps everyone, from small business owners to regular folks trying to plan their finances. I feel like these markets level the playing field a bit, letting someone like me have access to data that big institutions usually keep to themselves.
I also want to be clear that I dont see this as gambling. When I trade on Kalshi, Im doing research, reading up on current events, and making informed decisions. Its no different from investing in stocks or other markets. These event contracts have real economic purposes, like helping me think through risks tied to political or economic changes that affect my life. Calling this gaming feels like a stretch, and I hope the CFTC sees it that way too, especially when considering questions 15 through 22 about defining gaming versus legitimate markets.
Another thing that worries me is the idea of over-restricting or banning these markets. Id much rather trade on a regulated platform like Kalshi, where there are rules and oversight, than be pushed to some offshore site with no protections. Regulated markets are safer for people like me, and I think the CFTC should focus on keeping them accessible while addressing risks with targeted rules. This ties into questions 7 through 14 about balancing innovation and consumer protection. I believe you can do both.
Lastly, I think informed trading actually makes these markets better. When people with real knowledge participate, the prices get more accurate, and that benefits everyone. I know there are concerns about insider trading, as mentioned in questions 29 through 32, but I believe the laws and tools you already have can handle those bad actors without shutting down the whole system. Dont punish the rest of us for a few cheaters.
Im asking you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Keep platforms like Kalshi accessible to everyday people like me, and focus on enforcing existing laws rather than creating broad bans or heavy restrictions. Thank you for taking the time to read my thoughts.
Sincerely,
Ernesto Cisneros
