Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Sean Megill, and I'm a finance professional from Pennsylvania working at a Big 4 firm. I'm writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516) to express my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets. As someone who actively trades on platforms like Kalshi, Ive seen firsthand the value these markets bring, and I believe the CFTC should focus on proportionate regulation rather than broad restrictions.
I value competition and fair, free markets, and prediction markets embody those principles. Theyre not gambling, as some might claim. Trading on these platforms requires research and judgment, just like trading stocks or commodities. The data they produce often beats polls or pundits in accuracy, providing insights that benefit not just traders but society at large. For me, its also personal. Ive used these markets to hedge risks tied to economic events that impact my financial planning. Its a practical tool, much like any other derivative, and classifying event contracts as "gaming" ignores their real economic purpose.
Beyond my own experience, I see prediction markets as a way to level the playing field. Retail traders like me have historically been at a disadvantage in traditional markets, often outmaneuvered by big institutions. Prediction markets feel fairer, with prices reflecting real-world information aggregated from diverse participants. Banning or over-restricting them would just push activity to unregulated offshore platforms, which are far riskier for everyone involved. Regulated markets like Kalshi are the safer, smarter option.
I also believe the US should be leading in financial innovation, not falling behind other countries. These markets enable efficient price discovery, and even informed trading by knowledgeable participants improves accuracy for all of us. The CFTC already has strong tools to tackle manipulation and insider trading in other derivatives markets. Those same tools can work here without resorting to categorical bans. Im particularly drawn to your questions 7 and 8 on public interest and innovation, as well as 15 and 16 on defining legitimate markets versus gaming. My view is clear: event contracts serve hedging and forecasting purposes, and regulation should target specific risks rather than broad prohibitions.
Im not blind to the concerns about manipulation or unfair advantages. But shutting down an entire market to stop a few bad actors makes no sense. Its like closing the stock market over insider trading. Use the existing laws and focus on enforcement. Dont punish those of us who use these markets responsibly.
I urge the CFTC to support proportionate, targeted regulation of prediction markets. Keep platforms like Kalshi accessible to everyday traders while maintaining oversight. Lets keep the US at the forefront of financial innovation. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Sean Megill
