Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Timothy Lowe, and I'm an everyday citizen from Oregon writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I'm new to prediction markets, but I strongly support their existence under fair and sensible regulation. I believe they offer unique value to people like me, and I want to see the CFTC approach them in a balanced way.
I've always been frustrated by how often polls and pundits get things wrong, especially during election seasons. Prediction markets seem to cut through the noise. From what I've read, their forecasts are often more accurate because they aggregate real opinions backed by money, not just guesses. That kind of information isn't just helpful for traders; its useful for anyone trying to understand what might happen in politics or other public events. I think having access to these markets as a regular person is important. It levels the playing field a bit, letting folks like me participate in something that big institutions already use to their advantage.
I'm also drawn to the idea that prediction markets can help people and businesses hedge against real risks. For instance, if an election outcome could impact my taxes or a local business I rely on, trading on a regulated platform like Kalshi could give me a way to offset that uncertainty. This isn't gambling in my view. Its a practical tool, much like investing in stocks or commodities, and I dont think event contracts should be labeled as gaming. They serve a real economic purpose.
I do understand concerns about manipulation or insider trading, but I dont think the answer is banning or over-restricting these markets. The CFTC already has strong tools to go after bad actors, just as you do with other derivatives. Plus, federal employees are already barred from trading on nonpublic info. Use those rules, dont punish everyone else. If you shut down regulated markets, people will just turn to offshore platforms with no oversight. That seems far riskier to me. The U.S. should be leading on financial innovation, not pushing it away to other countries.
Id like to address a couple of specific questions from the ANPR. On Question 7, about balancing innovation and consumer protection, I think regulated markets strike that balance by keeping activity transparent while allowing new ideas to grow. And on Question 29, regarding inside information, I believe informed trading often improves price discovery. It makes the markets predictions sharper, which benefits everyone.
I urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Dont ban or overly restrict them. Let regular people like me participate in a safe, legal space while using your existing authority to tackle any misconduct. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Timothy Lowe
