Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Kyle Brooks, and I'm just an everyday citizen from Maine writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets. I hope my perspective as a regular user can help inform your approach.
I got into prediction markets because I wanted better information about things like elections and other public events. Honestly, the forecasts on these platforms have consistently been more accurate than polls or pundits on TV. Thats not just useful for me as a trader, its valuable for everyone. The prices on these markets give a clear, aggregated view of what people really think is going to happen. I believe this kind of price discovery helps not just individuals like me, but also the media and even policymakers who need reliable data to make decisions.
As someone who values the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets, I think platforms like Kalshi are a great example of how this can work safely. Id much rather trade on a regulated U.S. platform with oversight than be pushed to some offshore site with no protections. If the CFTC over-restricts or bans these markets, thats exactly what will happen. Activity wont stop, itll just move to less safe places where consumers like me have no recourse if something goes wrong. Regulation, not prohibition, is the way to protect people.
I also want to push back on the idea that event contracts are gambling. To me, trading on prediction markets takes research and judgment, just like investing in stocks. Its about understanding real-world events and making informed decisions, not rolling dice. Plus, I know the CFTC already has strong tools to handle issues like manipulation and insider trading in other markets. Those same tools can work here without needing broad bans or heavy-handed rules.
On some of the specific questions in the ANPR, like those in Topic Area B on public interest (Questions 7-14), Id argue that prediction markets balance innovation with consumer protection when theyre regulated properly. And on Topic Area E about inside information (Questions 29-32), I believe the existing laws against insider trading are enough if enforced. We dont need to shut down entire markets to deal with a few bad actors.
I truly think the U.S. has a chance to lead in financial innovation with prediction markets. We shouldnt cede that to other countries by over-regulating. I urge you to support proportionate regulation that keeps these markets accessible and safe for regular people like me, without unnecessary restrictions or outright bans.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Kyle Brooks
