Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Chris Lehman, and I'm a tech entrepreneur and policy wonk from Massachusetts. Im writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. As someone who works in government and policy, and who actively trades on platforms like Kalshi, I strongly support the development of well-regulated prediction markets. I believe they offer unique value to society and to public decision-making, and I urge the CFTC to adopt proportionate regulations rather than restrictive bans.
Prediction markets have consistently proven to be more accurate than polls or pundits when forecasting elections and major public events. I've seen this firsthand trading on Kalshi, where the aggregated wisdom of participants often cuts through the noise of traditional media. This is a genuine public good, including for non-participants. Better information helps everyone, from policymakers crafting legislation to citizens trying to understand the likelihood of key events. Classifying event contracts as "gaming," as discussed in Questions 15-22, ignores their role in price discovery and risk management.
As someone in policy, Im also aware of the academic research backing prediction markets, showing they aggregate information efficiently. This data should be transparent and accessible to help inform public decisions. I urge the CFTC to consider this evidence when balancing innovation and consumer protection.
I ask the Commission to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Dont let over-restrictive rules or broad bans stifle a tool that provides accurate forecasts, democratizes information, and supports legitimate economic activity. I'm happy to provide further input if needed.
Sincerely,
Chris Lehman
