Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Arpan Pradhan, and Im a trader and investor based in Maryland. Im writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. As someone who actively trades on platforms like Kalshi, I strongly support the development of well-regulated prediction markets, and I hope the CFTC will create a framework that allows these markets to thrive while protecting consumers.
Ive found prediction markets to be incredibly valuable in my own trading. Unlike polls or pundit opinions, the prices on platforms like Kalshi often give a clearer, more accurate picture of whats likely to happen with elections or other public events. Ive seen firsthand how these markets cut through noise and bias, aggregating real insights from a wide range of participants. This isnt just helpful for traders like me, its useful for anyone who wants a better sense of the future, whether thats journalists, policymakers, or regular citizens.
I also value the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Platforms like Kalshi, operating under CFTC oversight, provide a safe and transparent environment to trade event contracts. Ive looked at offshore alternatives in the past, and theyre a mess, with no accountability or protection if something goes wrong. Pushing activity to unregulated spaces by over-restricting domestic markets would be a huge mistake. Regulation here in the U.S. keeps me confident that my trades are fair and that theres recourse if issues arise.
Another reason I support these markets is their practical use for hedging real risks. For example, Ive used prediction markets to offset uncertainties tied to policy changes or economic events that could impact my investments. If an election outcome might affect tax policies or market regulations, trading on these contracts helps me manage that exposure. This isnt gambling, its a legitimate tool, just like hedging with futures or options in other areas.
Id like to address a couple of specific questions from the ANPR. On Question 7, regarding balancing innovation and consumer protection, I believe regulated prediction markets strike that balance by fostering innovation while keeping traders safe under CFTC rules. On Question 15, about defining legitimate markets versus gaming, Id argue that event contracts tied to public events serve a clear economic purpose through forecasting and hedging, distinct from mere speculation or games of chance.
Im not blind to concerns like manipulation or insider trading, but the CFTC already has tools to tackle those issues. Banning or overly restricting prediction markets punishes honest participants like me instead of targeting bad actors. I urge you to focus on proportionate regulation that addresses specific risks without stifling the benefits these markets provide.
Thank you for considering my perspective. I hope the CFTC will support a regulatory framework that allows prediction markets to grow responsibly in the U.S.
Sincerely,
Arpan Pradhan
