Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Valdas Rutkauskas, and I'm just an everyday citizen from Massachusetts writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets. I believe they provide real value to people like me and to society as a whole, and I hope the CFTC will regulate them in a fair and balanced way.
I rely on prediction markets to hedge personal financial risks. For example, I've used them to offset uncertainties around economic events like inflation data releases that affect my budget, especially with rising rent and grocery costs. It's not gambling to me; it's a practical tool. I have to do research and think hard about the real world to make these trades, just like I would for any investment. Classifying event contracts as "gaming" feels wrong when they serve such clear economic purposes. They're more accurate than polls or pundits too. I've seen time and again how the prices on these markets cut through the noise and give better forecasts on everything from elections to economic indicators. That kind of transparency benefits everyone, not just traders.
I'm also worried about what happens if the CFTC over-restricts or bans these markets. Regulated platforms like Kalshi are safe and accountable. If you push this activity offshore to unregulated sites, you're making things riskier for regular folks like me. The U.S. should be leading the way in financial innovation, not handing that advantage to other countries. And let's be honest, the CFTC already has strong tools to handle manipulation and insider trading in other markets. Use those same tools here instead of broad bans that punish everyone. I also believe informed trading helps price discovery. When knowledgeable people trade, the market gets smarter, and that helps us all.
I'd like to address a couple of specific questions from the ANPR. On Question 8 under Public Interest, I think prediction markets clearly serve the public by providing better information and hedging tools, as I've experienced firsthand. On Question 15 under Listed Activities, I urge you not to label these contracts as gaming; they have legitimate economic roles. And on Question 29 under Inside Information, I believe informed traders improve market accuracy, so long as existing laws against insider trading are enforced.
I appreciate the CFTC taking public input on this. My ask is simple: please support proportionate, targeted regulation for prediction markets. Don't ban or over-restrict them. Let regular people like me continue to participate in legal, regulated spaces where we can manage risks and access valuable information.
Sincerely,
Valdas Rutkauskas
