Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Caden Shaffer, and I'm just a regular guy from Ohio writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi, and I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets. I want to explain why I think these markets are valuable and why banning or over-restricting them would be a mistake.
For me, trading on prediction markets isn't just a hobby, it's a way to engage with the world around me. I put in time to research and think through events, whether it's an election that could impact my taxes or a policy decision that might hit my cost of living. The prices on these markets give me insights I can't find anywhere else, often more accurate than what I hear from news or polls. It's not gambling, it's using my judgment, much like someone trading stocks. Plus, I can hedge real risks, like betting against an outcome that could hurt my wallet. This kind of access shouldn't be limited to big institutions. Regular folks like me deserve a seat at the table, and our participation makes the market's predictions sharper.
I'm worried, though, about what happens if the CFTC clamps down too hard. Banning or over-restricting these markets won't stop people from trading, it'll just push us to unregulated offshore platforms. Those places are riskier, with no oversight to protect users. I've put my own money into Kalshi because it's regulated and I trust the system. If that goes away, I'm stuck with sketchy options, or worse, I lose what I've invested. Honestly, if these markets get shut down, I just want my money back. But I'd rather see the CFTC keep them legal and safe here in the US.
I noticed some of the questions in the ANPR, like Question 7 on balancing innovation and consumer protection, and Question 14 on whether these markets serve the public interest. My take is that prediction markets do serve the public by giving us unique information and a way to manage uncertainty. The answer isn't to shut them down over fears of manipulation or insider trading, since those are already illegal and the CFTC has tools to handle bad actors. Don't punish everyone for the actions of a few.
I'm asking you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Keep them legal, keep them regulated, and keep them accessible to everyday people like me. Don't let heavy-handed rules drive this activity offshore where there's no accountability. Thanks for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Caden Shaffer
