Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Will Goldstick, and I'm a trader, investor, data scientist, and machine learning engineer from Illinois. I've spent years working with data to uncover patterns and make informed predictions, so I have a deep appreciation for tools that improve forecasting and decision-making. I'm writing to express my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I've used prediction markets a few times myself, and I believe they offer unique value to individuals like me, businesses, and society as a whole.
As someone who crunches numbers for a living, I can tell you that prediction markets consistently produce more accurate forecasts than polls or pundits. They aggregate information from diverse participants, creating a clearer picture of likely outcomes for elections or other public events. This isn't just useful for traders; it helps everyone, from policymakers to regular citizens, make better decisions. Beyond forecasting, these markets let me hedge real financial risks. For example, Ive considered how an election outcome might impact tax policies that affect my investments. Having a way to offset that uncertainty is practical, not speculative.
I also value the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets like Kalshi, which operate under CFTC oversight. These platforms are far safer than unregulated offshore alternatives, where consumer protections are nonexistent. Banning or over-restricting prediction markets in the US would push activity to those less safe venues, which helps no one. Instead, the US should lead in financial innovation. We shouldn't cede ground to other countries by stifling a growing industry that could create jobs and drive economic value here at home.
To address some of your specific questions, like those in Topic B on public interest (Questions 7-14), I believe event contracts serve legitimate economic purposes like price discovery and risk management, not gaming. They shouldn't be classified as gambling any more than stock trading is. On Topic E (Questions 29-32) about inside information, I think informed trading actually improves price discovery and benefits all participants by making market signals stronger. Bad actors can be addressed with existing laws on insider trading and manipulation, not by banning entire markets. Finally, on Topic A (Questions 1-6), I urge proportionate, targeted regulation over broad categorical bans. Focus on specific risks with tailored rules, and keep innovation alive.
Prediction markets also align with academic research I've studied, showing they enhance data transparency and public decision-making. As a researcher, I see them as a goldmine for understanding collective knowledge. I ask that the CFTC support well-regulated prediction markets with fair, balanced rules that protect consumers without shutting down this valuable tool. Let's keep the US at the forefront of financial innovation.
Sincerely,
Will Goldstick
