Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Anthony Vega, and I'm just an everyday citizen from Georgia writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. Im not a trader or a financial expert, but Ive been following prediction markets for a while now because I believe they offer something valuable to people like me who want better information about the world.
I support well-regulated prediction markets because they give us insights you cant find anywhere else. Ive seen how these markets often predict election outcomes or public events more accurately than polls or talking heads on TV. That kind of forecasting isnt just useful for traders; it helps regular folks like me understand whats likely to happen and make better decisions, whether its about my familys budget or just staying informed. I also believe everyone should have the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Shutting out ordinary citizens while letting big institutions play doesnt seem fair, and it keeps the best information locked away from the public.
What really matters to me is keeping these markets safe and transparent through regulation, not bans. Platforms like Kalshi, which operate under CFTC oversight, are far better than unregulated offshore sites where theres no accountability. If we over-restrict or ban prediction markets here, people will just go to those less safe places, and that helps no one. Plus, I think the US should be a leader in financial innovation. We shouldnt let other countries take the lead on something that could be so useful if done right. Instead of broad categorical bans, Id like to see targeted rules that address specific problems like manipulation or insider trading without throwing out the whole concept.
I noticed a few questions in the ANPR that relate to my concerns. On Question 7, about balancing innovation and consumer protection, I think proportionate regulation is the way to go. Focus on real risks, not blanket prohibitions. And on Question 29, about informed traders, I believe those who do their research actually make prices more accurate, which benefits everyone, even non-traders like me who just follow along for the insights.
Im not blind to the risks. I get that some people might try to game the system. But the CFTC already has tools to tackle fraud and manipulation in other markets, and those can be adapted here. Dont punish everyone by shutting down something valuable because of a few bad actors.
I urge you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Keep them legal and accessible under clear, fair rules, and make sure the US stays ahead in this space. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Anthony Vega
