Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Adrian Moreno, and I'm just a regular citizen from Texas writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been trading on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket for a while now, and I believe these markets are valuable for people like me. I want to urge the CFTC to support well-regulated prediction markets with fair, targeted rules instead of heavy restrictions or outright bans.
I started using prediction markets because they give me information I can't find anywhere else. Honestly, their forecasts on things like elections or economic indicators are often more accurate than what I hear from pundits or see in polls. That helps me make better decisions, whether it's planning my budget around inflation data or just understanding what's really going on in the world. This isn't just good for me; it helps everyone when better information is out there for public decision-making. I think this ties into your questions on price discovery and public interest in Topic B, especially Questions 7 and 9.
I'm also a big believer in having the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Platforms like Kalshi, which operate under CFTC oversight, are so much safer than the unregulated offshore alternatives. If the CFTC over-restricts or bans these markets, people like me will just get pushed to less safe places. That's not consumer protection; it's the opposite. I'd rather see the US lead in financial innovation and keep these markets here, under proper rules, than cede control to other countries. This relates to your Questions 7 and 10 about balancing innovation and protection.
Another point is that event contracts aren't gambling. I put real thought and research into my trades, just like I would with stocks or other investments. These markets let me hedge real risks, like how policy changes might hit my wallet. That's a legitimate economic purpose, not a game. I hope the CFTC considers this when looking at Topic C, especially Question 15 on defining gaming versus legitimate markets.
I know there are concerns about manipulation or insider trading, but the CFTC already has strong tools to handle those issues. Banning entire markets to stop a few bad actors doesn't make sense to me. Plus, informed trading actually makes prices more accurate, which benefits everyone. This connects to Topic E, Questions 29 and 30, on inside information and price discovery. Let's focus on enforcing existing laws and creating proportionate rules, not broad categorical bans.
I strongly support regulated prediction markets and ask the CFTC to craft targeted regulations that address specific risks while allowing innovation and participation to continue. Please don't over-restrict or ban these valuable tools. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Adrian Moreno
