Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Jonny Juba, and I'm just a regular guy from Nevada writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been trading on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket for a while now, and I strongly support the idea of having well-regulated prediction markets that people like me can participate in legally and safely.
I believe prediction markets are incredibly valuable, and not just for those of us who trade on them. I've seen firsthand how the prices on these platforms often predict outcomes better than any poll or pundit on TV. Whether it's an election result or some economic indicator, the data coming out of these markets cuts through the noise. That kind of insight helps everyone, from regular folks making decisions to businesses planning ahead. It's not gambling, either. Trading on these platforms takes research and real-world judgment, just like investing in stocks. Labeling it as "gaming" doesn't make sense to me when it serves a clear economic purpose, like helping people understand trends or hedge risks.
Another thing that matters a lot to me is the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Platforms like Kalshi, which operate under CFTC oversight, are so much safer than unregulated offshore sites. If you over-restrict or ban these markets, you're just pushing people like me to less safe places where there's no protection at all. I'd much rather trade on a platform that's watched by the CFTC than take my chances somewhere with no rules.
I'm also confident that the CFTC already has what it needs to handle bad actors. From what I understand, you have strong tools to stop manipulation and insider trading in other markets, and those should work for prediction markets too. There's no need to shut down entire markets just because a few might try to cheat. That feels like punishing everyone for the actions of a few.
Looking at some of the specific questions in the ANPR, I want to address a couple that hit home for me. On Question 7, about balancing innovation and consumer protection, I think regulated prediction markets strike that balance by giving us access to unique information while keeping oversight in place. And on Question 15, regarding defining gaming versus legitimate markets, I really believe these contracts aren't gambling but a way to aggregate knowledge and manage uncertainty.
I hope you'll consider my perspective as an everyday citizen who values these markets. Please support proportionate regulation of prediction markets and avoid bans or overly tight restrictions that could push activity underground or limit access for regular people like me.
Sincerely,
Jonny Juba
