Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Robert Steiner, and I'm just a regular guy from Florida writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I'm not a big investor or a Wall Street type. I live paycheck to paycheck, trying to build some savings and get ahead. I use platforms like Kalshi to explore investment opportunities that I can't access through traditional markets because I simply don't have the kind of money it takes to play that game. Prediction markets give someone like me a chance to put my knowledge to work, and I want to see them regulated fairly, not banned or choked with overreaching rules.
I've been trading on Kalshi for a while now, and I can tell you it's not gambling. It takes research and real thought about what's happening in the world, whether it's an election outcome or an economic report. I'm making decisions based on what I learn, just like any investor in stocks or commodities. To me, that's not a game of chance. It's a way to participate in something bigger and maybe hedge against things that affect my life, like policy changes that hit my wallet. I think this kind of trading serves a real purpose, and calling it "gaming" doesn't fit.
What worries me is the idea of banning or over-restricting these markets. I feel safer trading on a regulated platform like Kalshi, where there are rules and oversight, compared to some offshore site with no accountability. If the CFTC cracks down too hard, people like me won't just stop trading. We'll get pushed to those unregulated platforms, and that's a lot riskier for everyone. I believe the CFTC should focus on proportionate regulation, targeting specific issues like manipulation, instead of broad bans that punish regular folks who are just trying to make informed decisions.
I'm also glad to see informed traders in these markets. Their knowledge helps make the prices more accurate, and that benefits everyone, not just the people trading. It gives me better information to work with. I think this ties into some of the questions you asked, like in Topic E, Questions 29 and 30, about whether informed trading helps price discovery. From my experience, it does, and we shouldn't discourage that.
I know there are concerns about insider trading or manipulation, and I get that. But those are already illegal, and the CFTC has tools to handle bad actors without shutting down the whole market. Let's not punish the many for the actions of a few. I'm asking you to support fair, targeted regulation of prediction markets so people like me can keep participating in a legal, safe way. Don't let heavy-handed rules push us into riskier corners of the internet.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Robert Steiner
