Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Stepen Cann, and I'm an everyday citizen from Florida. I'm writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I've used prediction markets a few times, and I believe they have real value for people like me and for society as a whole. I want to urge the CFTC to support well-regulated prediction markets rather than banning or overly restricting them.
Ive always been interested in how we can get better information about public events like elections or policy changes. From my experience, prediction markets often give forecasts that are more accurate than polls or pundits on TV. Ive seen this firsthand when I checked market odds during the last election cycle, and they were closer to the actual outcome than most news predictions. This kind of information isnt just helpful for traders; its useful for everyone trying to understand what might happen next. Its also backed by academic research showing that these markets aggregate data efficiently. I think the CFTC should recognize this value when considering regulations, especially in response to questions 7 and 8 about public interest and price discovery.
Beyond forecasting, I believe prediction markets have a real economic purpose. Theyre not gambling, even if some might call them that. When Ive traded on these platforms, its been after researching and thinking hard about the issues, just like I would for any investment. They also let people hedge against risks. For example, a small business owner might use them to protect against policy changes, or someone like me could hedge against economic shifts. This ties directly to question 15 on defining gaming versus legitimate markets, and I strongly feel event contracts serve a purpose beyond mere speculation.
Im also worried that banning or over-restricting these markets will just push activity offshore to unregulated platforms. Id much rather see the CFTC regulate them here in the US, where there are already strong tools to prevent manipulation and insider trading. You dont need new bans; you can use whats already in place. Plus, informed trading actually helps make prices more accurate, benefiting everyone, as asked in question 29 about inside information. And honestly, the US should be leading the way in financial innovation, not letting other countries take the lead.
I understand there are concerns about manipulation or misuse, and those should be addressed. But shutting down prediction markets isnt the answer. Its like closing a highway because a few people speed. Focus on targeted rules instead. I hope the CFTC will support proportionate regulation that keeps these markets accessible and safe for regular folks like me.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Stepen Cann
