Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is George Peterman, and I'm a software engineer based in Texas. I'm writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. As someone who actively trades on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, I strongly support the development of well-regulated prediction markets in the United States, and I hope the CFTC will craft rules that encourage innovation while addressing real risks.
I've seen firsthand how prediction markets provide information that's just not available anywhere else. Working in tech, I rely on accurate data to make decisions, and these markets have consistently outperformed polls and pundits when it comes to forecasting elections and other public events. That kind of insight isn't just useful for traders like me, it helps everyone, from journalists to policymakers, make better-informed choices. I also value the freedom to participate in these legal, regulated spaces. Platforms like Kalshi, operating under CFTC oversight, give me confidence that my trades are protected by clear rules, unlike the unregulated offshore alternatives.
I worry that banning or over-restricting prediction markets would push activity to those less safe venues. If the U.S. doesn't lead on this, traders like me will have no choice but to turn to offshore platforms with no consumer protections. Thats a step backward. I also dont see event contracts as "gaming." They serve real economic purposes, like price discovery and even hedging against uncertainty. Calling them gambling feels like a misstep when the skills involved, research and analysis, mirror what I do with traditional investments.
On specific questions from the ANPR, Id like to address a few points. Regarding Questions 7 to 14 on public interest, I believe the CFTC should prioritize balancing innovation with consumer protection by supporting regulated markets over outright bans. On Questions 15 to 22 about listed activities, I urge you to avoid classifying event contracts as gaming and instead focus on their legitimate value. And on Questions 29 to 32 about inside information, I think informed trading actually improves price discovery. It makes markets more accurate, benefiting all participants, as long as existing laws against insider trading are enforced.
Im not blind to the risks. Manipulation and unfair practices are real concerns, but the CFTC already has tools to tackle those issues. Broad categorical bans punish honest traders like me instead of targeting bad actors. Proportionate, targeted regulation is the way to go.
I hope the CFTC will support the growth of prediction markets with rules that keep them safe, accessible, and innovative. Please dont let over-restriction drive this valuable tool offshore. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
George Peterman
