Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Aidan Guarniere, and I'm a software engineer from California. Im writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516) to express my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets. As someone who actively trades on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, Ive seen firsthand how these markets provide unique value, both to me personally and to society at large.
I rely on prediction markets for insights that I cant get from polls or pundits. Their forecasts are often more accurate, aggregating real-time information from diverse participants. This isnt just helpful for traders like me; its valuable for anyone making decisions, from business owners to policymakers. As a tech professional, I also see prediction markets as a key area for U.S. innovation. We should be leading in financial technology, not ceding ground to other countries by over-restricting these platforms. Banning or overly limiting them would simply push activity to unregulated offshore sites, which are far less safe than CFTC-registered markets like Kalshi.
I also use these markets to hedge real risks. For instance, Ive traded contracts tied to economic indicators like inflation data, which helps me plan around potential impacts to my personal finances in Californias high-cost environment. This isnt gambling; its a practical tool for managing uncertainty, much like traditional futures or options. Classifying event contracts as gaming ignores their legitimate economic purpose, whether its price discovery or risk management. I urge the CFTC to recognize this distinction, particularly in response to questions 15-22 on listed activities.
On concerns like manipulation or insider trading, I believe the CFTC already has robust tools to address bad actors. These issues are illegal across all regulated markets, and the answer isnt to ban prediction markets but to enforce existing rules. Im also not worried about informed trading; it actually improves price discovery, benefiting everyone, as noted in questions 29-32 on inside information. Academic research backs this up, showing how these markets efficiently aggregate data. Broad categorical bans, as opposed to targeted regulation, would punish honest participants like me without solving the root issues.
I ask the CFTC to support proportionate regulation that addresses specific risks without stifling innovation or access. Lets keep these markets legal and regulated here in the U.S., ensuring ordinary people like me can participate safely while maintaining Americas edge in financial tech. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Aidan Guarniere
