Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Jordan Mitchell, and I'm a student from Virginia writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've used prediction markets a few times, and while I'm not deeply invested in them, I see real value in how they can provide better information for public decision-making and price discovery. I want to urge the CFTC to support well-regulated prediction markets rather than overly restricting or banning them.
As a student, I often find myself digging through news, polls, and social media to understand what's happening in the world, whether it's an election or an economic shift. Prediction markets cut through a lot of that noise. The prices reflect what people actually think will happen, based on real money and real stakes, not just opinions. I've noticed that these markets often get closer to the truth than pundits or surveys, and I believe that kind of aggregated insight is useful not just for me, but for policymakers, journalists, and the public at large. It helps us all make better decisions with clearer information.
One thing I'm particularly concerned about is where these markets operate. I've seen platforms like Kalshi, which are regulated here in the U.S. under CFTC oversight, and I've also come across unregulated offshore sites. Honestly, the regulated ones feel a lot safer. They have rules, transparency, and accountability. If we push too hard with restrictions or outright bans, I worry people will just turn to those offshore platforms where there's no oversight at all. That seems like a worse outcome for everyone. I'd rather see the CFTC focus on making sure regulated markets like Kalshi can operate effectively and keep activity in a controlled environment.
That said, I do have some reservations. I don't like the idea of people with insider knowledge using it to sway real-world decisions, or worse, people making threats based on what they predict or trade. Those behaviors cross a line. I think the CFTC should address these risks with targeted rules, not broad prohibitions. Looking at some of the questions in your ANPR, like those in Topic Area E (Questions 29-32) about inside information, Id support measures to monitor and penalize misuse of nonpublic info. And for public safety concerns tied to certain contracts, maybe around war or terrorism as mentioned in Questions 15-22, I think specific limits make sense. But shutting down entire markets over these issues feels like overkill.
In short, I support prediction markets as a tool for better information and price discovery, as long as they're regulated properly. Please focus on proportionate rules that address real risks without stifling the benefits these markets can bring. Don't let heavy-handed restrictions drive activity to less safe, unregulated spaces.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Jordan Mitchell
