Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Leroy Thomas, and I'm just an everyday citizen from Oklahoma writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've used prediction markets like Kalshi a few times, and I truly believe they represent the future of financial freedom for regular folks like me. I want to urge the CFTC to support well-regulated prediction markets with fair, proportionate rules instead of banning or over-restricting them.
Ive seen firsthand how prediction markets give information you cant find anywhere else. Their forecasts often beat out polls or TV pundits, and thats valuable to everyone, not just traders. For someone like me, whos not a big investor or insider, these markets level the playing field. They let regular people participate, do their own research, and make informed decisions. Thats not gambling. Its using judgment about real-world events, just like trading stocks or commodities. Classifying event contracts as "gaming" feels wrong when they serve real economic purposes like price discovery and hedging risks. I often worry about how elections or policy changes might hit my wallet, and prediction markets give me a way to hedge against that uncertainty.
Im also concerned about what happens if these markets get banned or over-regulated. Right now, platforms like Kalshi operate under CFTC oversight, which makes them safer. If you shut them down or make the rules too tight, people will just turn to unregulated offshore sites. Thats worse for everyone. The U.S. should be leading the way on financial innovation, not pushing it overseas. Id rather see targeted rules that deal with specific problems like manipulation or insider trading, which the CFTC already has tools to handle, instead of broad bans that punish law-abiding users.
Looking at some of the questions in the ANPR, I want to address a couple that hit home for me. On Question 7, about balancing innovation and consumer protection, I think regulated markets strike that balance by keeping things transparent while letting new ideas grow. And on Question 15, about defining gaming versus legitimate markets, I strongly believe event contracts arent just bets. They help people like me manage real risks, whether its a policy change or an economic shift.
I know there are concerns about things like insider trading or manipulation, and those are valid. But those issues are already illegal, and the CFTC has the power to enforce the rules. Banning prediction markets to stop a few bad actors feels like overkill. Its like closing a highway because some people speed.
Im asking you to support proportionate regulation that lets prediction markets thrive while addressing specific risks with targeted solutions. Dont let heavy-handed rules push this innovation offshore or out of reach for regular Americans like me. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Leroy Thomas
