Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Hwidong Jeon, and I'm a student and academic based in California. I'm writing to comment on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I strongly support the development of well-regulated prediction markets, and I want to share why I believe they are valuable for society and for people like me.
As someone studying and researching in an academic environment, Ive always been fascinated by how we can better understand and predict complex events, like elections or major policy shifts. I've used prediction markets a few times myself, and Ive been struck by how often their forecasts are more accurate than traditional polls or pundit opinions. This isn't just a hunch. Studies, including work by economists like Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz, consistently show that prediction markets aggregate information in a way that outperforms other methods. For me, this isn't just about trading. It's about having access to better data that can inform public decision-making and even my own studies.
I also see prediction markets as a tool for regular people, not just big institutions. They let someone like me participate in a legal, regulated space and contribute to price discovery. If only large players are allowed in, the insights stay locked away. Opening these markets to everyone makes the forecasts stronger and feels fairer. Plus, Ive thought about how they could help hedge personal financial risks. For example, if an election outcome might affect student loan policies or funding for education in California, having a way to offset that uncertainty would be practical.
I understand there are concerns about manipulation or insider trading, and those are valid. But the CFTC already has tools to tackle these issues. Insider trading by federal officials is illegal, and market manipulation is something you can already prosecute. Shutting down or over-restricting prediction markets to stop a few bad actors feels like punishing everyone else. Id rather see targeted enforcement than broad bans.
Id like to address a couple of specific questions from the ANPR. On Question 7, regarding public interest, I believe prediction markets serve the public by providing unique information and fostering civic engagement. On Question 15, about defining legitimate markets, I think event contracts tied to elections or public events are distinct from gaming because they require research and judgment, much like any other investment.
I urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Dont ban or overly restrict them. They offer real value for forecasting, hedging, and democratizing information. As a student, I see them as a resource for learning and understanding the world better. Please ensure they remain accessible under fair rules.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Hwidong Jeon
