Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Daniel Rosario, and I'm a trader and investor based in Florida. I'm writing to express my strong support for the proportionate regulation of prediction markets as outlined in the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). As someone who actively trades on platforms like Kalshi, Ive seen firsthand the value these markets provide, and I believe they deserve a regulatory framework that protects participants while preserving our freedom to engage in legal, regulated trading.
Prediction markets aren't just a niche hobby for me; they're a powerful tool for understanding the world. The prices on these platforms often cut through the noise of media and polls, offering insights I can't get anywhere else. I care deeply about the safety of our markets and the protection of our rights as traders. Allowing everyday people like me to participate in these markets isn't a flaw, it's a strength. When regular folks trade based on their knowledge and research, it makes the market's predictions sharper and more accurate. Informed trading improves price discovery, and that benefits everyone, not just those of us placing trades. It's a democratizing force, and I worry that overly restrictive rules would lock out people like me while letting big institutions dominate the space.
I know there are concerns about things like insider trading or manipulation, and I get why those are issues. But the answer isn't to ban or over-restrict prediction markets. The CFTC already has laws and tools to go after bad actors, whether it's insider trading or price manipulation. Shutting down these markets to stop a few cheaters would punish honest traders like me who are just trying to make informed decisions. It's no different from how the stock market operates; we don't close it down because of occasional bad behavior, we enforce the rules.
Id like to address a couple of specific questions from your ANPR. On Question 29, regarding whether informed traders help price discovery, I can say from experience that they absolutely do. My trades on Kalshi are based on hours of reading and analysis, and Ive seen how the collective input of informed participants moves prices toward accuracy. And on Question 7, about balancing innovation and consumer protection, I believe the CFTC can strike that balance by focusing on targeted rules rather than broad prohibitions.
Prediction markets are a legitimate way for me to engage with real-world events, hedge risks, and contribute to better information for everyone. I urge you to support a regulatory approach that keeps these markets accessible to regular traders while addressing specific risks with the tools you already have. Please don't let overregulation push this valuable activity offshore or out of reach.
Sincerely,
Daniel Rosario
