Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Mikhail Karnaukh, and I'm an everyday citizen from North Carolina writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I actively trade on platforms like Kalshi, and I strongly support the development of well-regulated prediction markets in the United States. I believe they provide unique value to people like me and to society as a whole, and I urge the CFTC to craft rules that encourage their growth rather than restrict them.
Ive seen firsthand how prediction markets offer insights you just cant get elsewhere. For example, during the last election cycle, I followed the odds on Kalshi for various outcomes, and they consistently outperformed the polls and pundits I saw on TV. That kind of accuracy isnt just interesting, its useful. It helps regular folks like me make sense of complex events, and I believe it could help journalists, policymakers, and businesses make better decisions too. This ties directly to your questions on public interest, especially Question 7 about balancing innovation and consumer protection. I think prediction markets are a clear win for innovation, and with proper oversight, they can be safe for consumers.
I also value my freedom to participate in these legal, regulated markets. Platforms like Kalshi, operating under CFTC oversight, are far safer than unregulated offshore alternatives. If the U.S. clamps down too hard, people will just turn to those riskier options, and thats worse for everyone. This connects to Question 11 on public interest considerations. I believe regulated markets keep activity transparent and protect users, while bans or over-restrictions push trading into the shadows.
Another point I want to make is that event contracts arent gambling. I put real thought into my trades, researching data and trends just like I would for stocks. These markets serve legitimate purposes, like price discovery, and labeling them as gaming misses the mark. I hope the CFTC considers this in Questions 15 and 16 about defining gaming versus legitimate activities. Additionally, informed trading, as discussed in Questions 29 and 30, actually improves price discovery. When people with knowledge trade, the market reflects better information, and that benefits everyone, not just traders.
Finally, I think the U.S. should be a leader in financial innovation. We shouldnt let other countries take the lead on prediction markets. By supporting these platforms with smart regulation, we can stay competitive and set a global standard. This relates to Question 33 on classification and the broader costs and benefits of regulation.
I ask the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Please dont ban or overly restrict them. Focus on targeted rules to address specific risks while allowing these valuable tools to grow. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Mikhail Karnaukh
