Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Ryan McKeel, and Im a small business owner from Mississippi running an online shop that sells sports and trading cards. Im writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). Im fairly new to prediction markets, but Ive already seen their value and strongly support their continued growth under fair, sensible regulation.
As a business owner, Ive found platforms like Kalshi to be a game-changer. They give me a window into what people are really thinking about trends in sports, products, and even broader events. That kind of insight helps me make better decisions about what to stock and how to price my cards. Its not just about me, though. I believe these markets provide information thats useful to everyone, from regular folks to policymakers, by showing true public sentiment in a way polls or pundits often miss. Accurate forecasting, especially for things like elections or big public events, benefits society as a whole.
Im all for consumer protection, but I think the CFTC already has strong tools to handle issues like manipulation or insider trading. Banning or over-restricting these markets isnt the answer. It would just push people like me to unregulated offshore platforms, which are way riskier. Id much rather trade on a regulated market like Kalshi, where theres oversight and accountability. Plus, the U.S. should be leading the charge in financial innovation, not letting other countries take the reins. Weve got the chance to set the standard here.
I also want to push back on any idea that event contracts are just gambling. Theyre not. For me, trading on these markets takes research and thought, just like any other investment. They serve a real purpose, whether its helping me gauge market trends or letting others hedge against uncertainty. Calling this gaming would be like calling stock trading a game of chance. And lets not forget that informed trading actually makes prices more accurate, which helps everyone in the market.
Ive noticed the CFTCs questions, especially numbers 7 through 14 on public interest and 15 through 22 on defining legitimate markets versus gaming. My view is clear: prediction markets have huge public value for price discovery and better decision-making. Theyre not gambling, and regulation should focus on specific risks rather than broad bans. Questions 29 to 32 on inside information also hit home. I trust the CFTC can adapt existing rules to handle bad actors without shutting down the whole system.
I urge you to support proportionate regulation that keeps prediction markets accessible and safe for people like me. Dont let over-restriction or outright bans push this valuable tool offshore. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Ryan McKeel
