Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Lafe Powell, and I'm a chef based in Colorado. I've been working in kitchens for over a decade, running my own small catering business now, and Ive found myself relying on prediction markets like Kalshi to help make sense of the economic and political events that impact my livelihood. I'm writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516) to express my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets and to urge you to avoid over-restrictive rules or outright bans.
As a small business owner, I deal with a lot of uncertainty. Will new regulations change food safety costs? Could an election outcome shift taxes or labor laws that hit my bottom line? Ive found that prediction markets give me insights I cant get from polls or news pundits. Their forecasts are often sharper, more reliable, because theyre based on real money and real stakes. I trade on Kalshi to hedge some of these risks, like betting on election outcomes or inflation numbers that could affect my ingredient costs or customer demand. This isnt gambling to me. Its research and strategy, no different from how Id approach any other business decision.
I also worry about what happens if the CFTC clamps down too hard. Id rather trade on a regulated platform like Kalshi, where there are rules and oversight, than be pushed to some sketchy offshore site with no protections. Banning or over-restricting these markets wont stop people like me from wanting this information; itll just drive us to less safe places. Plus, I believe the US should be leading the way on financial innovation, not handing that edge to other countries.
Regarding some of your specific questions, like those in Topic Area B on public interest (Questions 7-14), I think prediction markets serve a clear public good by improving price discovery and helping folks like me manage real risks. Informed traders actually make the market better for everyone by sharpening the accuracy of the odds. And on Topic Area C about listed activities (Questions 15-22), I strongly feel event contracts shouldnt be labeled as gaming. Theyre economic tools, not slot machines. As for concerns about manipulation or insider trading, addressed in Topic Area E (Questions 29-32), I trust the CFTC already has strong tools to tackle bad actors. Use those instead of broad bans that punish honest users.
Im not blind to the risks, and I get why youre looking at this closely. But proportionate, targeted rules are the answer, not sweeping restrictions. Please support a framework that lets prediction markets thrive under fair regulation, so people like me can keep using them to navigate an unpredictable world.
Sincerely,
Lafe Powell
