Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Jose Medina, and I'm an everyday citizen from California who actively trades on prediction markets like Kalshi. I'm writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516) to express my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets. I've found these platforms incredibly useful, and I believe they serve a valuable purpose for society when properly overseen by the CFTC.
I started trading on Kalshi because it offers information and opportunities I can't get anywhere else. Whether it's forecasting election outcomes or economic events like inflation numbers, the prices on prediction markets have consistently been more accurate than polls or pundits I see on TV. This isn't just helpful for me as a trader; its better information for everyone, from regular folks to policymakers. Plus, I've used these markets to hedge personal financial risks, like protecting against policy changes that could impact my budget. This isn't gambling to me. It takes research and real-world judgment, just like any other investment.
I feel safer trading on a regulated platform like Kalshi than I ever would on some offshore site with no oversight. I've never felt more secure trading anywhere else, and I hope Kalshi can continue to provide a legitimate, safe space for people like me. Banning or over-restricting these markets would just push activity to those unregulated platforms, which helps no one. The CFTC already has strong tools to tackle issues like manipulation or insider trading in other markets. I trust you can adapt those same tools here without broad bans that punish honest participants. And let's be clear, event contracts aren't gaming. They serve real economic purposes like hedging and price discovery, and they shouldn't be treated as gambling.
I'm also concerned about the U.S. falling behind. We should be leading in financial innovation, not letting other countries take the stage. Regulated prediction markets can keep us competitive while protecting consumers. I appreciate that you're asking for input on balancing innovation with protection, as in Questions 7 and 8 from the ANPR. I believe informed trading actually improves price discovery, benefiting all participants, as touched on in Question 29. Proportionate, targeted rules addressing specific risks are the way to go, not categorical prohibitions.
Thank you for considering my perspective and for all you're doing to get this right. I urge the CFTC to support well-regulated prediction markets and avoid overly restrictive measures that could harm everyday traders like me or push activity offshore. Let's keep platforms like Kalshi safe and accessible for everyone.
Sincerely,
Jose Medina
