Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Humberto Torres, and I'm just an everyday citizen from Texas writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I make a living through sports betting and predictions, and Ive been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now. Im reaching out because I strongly support the freedom to participate in legal, regulated prediction markets, and I want to make sure my voice is heard on this.
I believe prediction markets are incredibly valuable, not just for people like me who trade on them, but for everyone. The forecasts they produce are often way more accurate than what you get from polls or TV pundits. Ive seen this firsthand on Kalshi, where the market prices on things like election outcomes or economic data often cut through the noise and get closer to the truth than any expert opinion Ive come across. This kind of information isnt just helpful for traders; its something the public, businesses, and even policymakers can use to make better decisions.
I also want to stress that participating in these markets isnt gambling, at least not in the way some might think. It takes real research and judgment, just like any other kind of investing. I put time into understanding the events Im trading on, and I feel like Im contributing to a bigger picture by helping set those prices. Keeping these markets open to regular folks like me is important. If only big institutions get access, they hoard all the insights, and thats not fair. Democratizing this space makes the information better for everyone.
I know there are concerns about things like insider trading or manipulation, and I get that. But those issues are already against the law, right? The CFTC has the power to go after bad actors without shutting down entire markets. Banning prediction markets to stop a few cheaters would be like closing the stock market over insider trading. It punishes the wrong people. Just use the tools youve got to enforce the rules.
On a specific note, Id like to address something that bugs me. In sports betting and other prediction spaces Im part of, if an outcome ends in a tie, you get a refund. Thats standard. I think prediction markets should work the same way. If an event contract resolves as a tie, traders shouldnt lose their money; it should be refunded. I hope you consider this when looking at dispute resolution rules, like in your Question 3 from the ANPR.
Im also looking at your Question 7 on balancing innovation and consumer protection. I think regulated markets like Kalshi are the way to go. Theyre safer than unregulated offshore platforms, and Id hate to see heavy restrictions push people like me to riskier places.
In closing, I urge you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Dont ban or over-restrict them. Keep them open to everyday people like me, and focus on enforcing the laws already in place to handle any problems. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Humberto Torres
