Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Dylan Owens, and I'm just a regular guy from Kentucky writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I've dabbled in prediction markets a few times, mainly through platforms like Kalshi, and I believe they can be useful for getting better information out there for public decision-making and price discovery. But after my own experiences, I'm convinced they need serious, targeted regulation to protect everyday folks like me.
I originally thought prediction markets were a great idea. They seemed like a unique way to get insights on things like future oil prices or economic trends, stuff that affects my day-to-day life. The idea of regular people contributing to price discovery, not just big institutions, felt fair and valuable. I still think there's potential for these markets to help society make better decisions with more accurate data, stuff you can't always get from polls or news.
But here's the thing. My time using Kalshi opened my eyes to how messy and confusing these platforms can be without proper oversight. I've seen people on the app admitting they don't understand what they're spending hundreds of dollars on. Some even posted proof of getting scammed. In my own case, I bet on future oil prices, and after everyone lost their money, Kalshi just removed the live price tracking chart. No explanation. I later heard they use June contracts instead of May, which makes no sense to me, and it wasn't clear anywhere on the site. I never even got an official statement to confirm what happened. It left me feeling burned, and now Im wary. I still support the concept of prediction markets, but my lord, they can't be left to run wild.
This ties into some of the questions you asked in the ANPR, like in Topic B on balancing innovation with consumer protection (Question 7, I think). I'm all for innovation, but not when it means regular people get taken advantage of due to unclear rules or poor explanations. And on Topic A about manipulation prevention (Question 1 or 2), I worry platforms could manipulate how they present data or contracts to mislead users. Instead of broad bans or shutting these markets down, I think the CFTC should focus on proportionate regulation. Make sure platforms explain contracts clearly, enforce transparency, and protect against scams or manipulation. Youve already got tools to tackle bad actors, so use them. Don't punish everyone by banning these markets outright.
I hope you'll consider my experience and push for strong, targeted rules that fix these problems while still letting prediction markets serve a public good. Thanks for taking the time to read this.
Sincerely,
Dylan Owens
