Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is John Wills, and I'm an everyday citizen from Virginia writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. Ive been using prediction markets for a while now to manage personal financial risks, and I strongly support regulating these markets in a fair and balanced way instead of banning or overly restricting them.
I rely on prediction markets to hedge against uncertainties that hit close to home, like election outcomes that could change tax policies or economic decisions that mess with my budget. The prices on these platforms often give me a clearer picture than polls or TV pundits ever do. Ive seen firsthand how prediction markets cut through the noise and provide forecasts that are just more accurate. That kind of information isnt just helpful to me; its valuable to anyone trying to make sense of public events, from regular folks to policymakers. Its not gambling, either. It takes real research and judgment, much like investing in stocks. Classifying event contracts as "gaming" ignores the legitimate economic purpose they serve, like hedging and price discovery.
I also believe that keeping these markets legal and regulated under the CFTC is critical. Platforms like Kalshi, which operate under your oversight, are a far safer place for people like me to participate compared to unregulated offshore sites. If you ban or over-restrict prediction markets, youre not stopping the activity. Youre just pushing it to places where theres no protection at all. Thats not a solution; its a bigger problem waiting to happen. I value my freedom to take part in these legal, regulated markets, and I think most Americans would agree its better to have this activity out in the open where it can be monitored.
Looking at some of the specific questions in the ANPR, Id like to address a couple from the Public Interest section, like Question 7 on balancing innovation and consumer protection. I think regulation should focus on protecting users without stifling the benefits prediction markets offer, like better information for decision-making. Also, on Question 15 from the Listed Activities section, I urge you not to label these contracts as gaming. Theyre tools for managing real-world risks, not slot machines.
Im just a regular guy trying to make informed choices for myself and my family. Prediction markets help me do that, and they help society by aggregating information in ways nothing else can. Please support proportionate regulation that keeps these markets accessible and safe, without broad bans or restrictions that punish the many for the actions of a few.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
John Wills
