Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Leo Johnson, and I'm a trader and investor from New York. I work two jobs to make ends meet, and I use prediction markets like Kalshi as a way to earn extra money on the side. I'm writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516) because I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets, and I want to share why they matter to me and why the CFTC should support them with fair rules, not bans or harsh restrictions.
For someone like me, prediction markets aren't just a hobby. They're a chance to put my research and judgment to work, much like I do with stocks or other investments. I spend time analyzing data, reading news, and thinking about real-world events, whether it's an election outcome or an economic indicator like a CPI report. The money I make helps cover bills and gives me a small buffer. But beyond that, these markets give me access to information I can't get anywhere else. The prices reflect what thousands of people think, often more accurately than polls or pundits. That benefits everyone, not just traders.
I also see real economic value in these markets. They're not gambling, no matter what some might say. I use them to hedge risks that hit close to home, like how an election result might affect my taxes or a Fed decision might impact my cost of living. This isn't a game; it's practical. Classifying event contracts as "gaming" (as discussed in Questions 15-22) ignores their legitimate purpose. They're as much an investment tool as anything else I trade.
I'm also worried about what happens if the CFTC over-restricts these markets. Regulated platforms like Kalshi are safe, transparent, and under your oversight. If you ban or limit them, people like me will get pushed to unregulated offshore sites with no protections. That's a worse outcome for everyone. Plus, the US should be leading in financial innovation, not handing that edge to other countries (relevant to Questions 7-14 on public interest). And let's not forget, informed trading makes prices more accurate, which helps all participants (as raised in Questions 29-32 on inside information). The CFTC already has strong tools to tackle manipulation and insider trading. Use those instead of punishing the whole market.
I urge you to craft rules that protect consumers while allowing prediction markets to thrive. Don't ban broad categories or over-regulate them out of existence. Proportionate regulation will keep the US competitive and let regular people like me participate in a fair, legal market. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Leo Johnson
