Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Baltazar Ramirez, and I'm just a regular guy from Kansas writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I've used prediction markets a few times, and I believe theyre a valuable tool that deserves fair regulation, not heavy-handed restrictions. I appreciate the chance to weigh in on this.
I think prediction markets are important because they provide better information for public decision-making. I've seen firsthand how the prices on these platforms often predict outcomes more accurately than polls or TV pundits. Thats not just helpful for traders like me, its useful for everyone, from journalists to policymakers, who need reliable signals about what might happen next. For example, during the last election cycle, I checked a platform to see what the market thought about certain candidates, and it cut through a lot of the noise I was hearing elsewhere. That kind of price discovery is a public good, in my view.
I also believe that regulated markets, like Kalshi, are a much safer option than the unregulated offshore platforms out there. If the CFTC clamps down too hard, people arent going to stop trading, theyll just move to shadier sites with no oversight. Thats worse for everyone. Id rather see the US take the lead on financial innovation and set a global standard for how these markets should work, instead of letting other countries fill the gap. Weve got the expertise and the framework to do this right.
Another point I want to make is about informed trading. When people who know what theyre talking about trade on these platforms, it actually improves the prices and makes the predictions sharper. That benefits all market participants, not just the insiders. The CFTC shouldnt try to stop that kind of activity by over-regulating, as I see in some of the concerns raised in Questions 29-32 about inside information. Instead, enforce the existing laws against manipulation and insider trading, which are already in place.
Im not blind to the risks. I know some worry about manipulation or unfair advantages, and those are real issues. But the answer isnt to ban or overly restrict prediction markets. Its to use the tools the CFTC already has and focus on proportionate rules that address specific problems without killing off a useful innovation.
I hope youll consider my perspective as you move forward. Please support a regulatory framework for prediction markets that encourages innovation while protecting participants. Dont let fear of a few bad actors shut down something that can benefit so many of us.
Sincerely,
Baltazar Ramirez
