Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Kendra Liddell, and I'm a healthcare professional from Michigan. I'm writing to express my support for the thoughtful and proportionate regulation of prediction markets, as outlined in the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I'm new to these markets myself, but I've taken the time to learn about them, and I believe they offer real value to everyday people like me, as well as to our country's economy and innovation.
As someone who works in healthcare, I value access to accurate information and data. Prediction markets fascinate me because they aggregate information in ways that often beat traditional polls or expert opinions. I've read about academic research, like studies from economists such as Justin Wolfers, showing how these markets can predict outcomes with surprising accuracy. That kind of transparency and data could help inform public policy or even personal decisions. I want the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets where I can engage with this information directly, not be shut out because of overly strict rules.
I also strongly believe event contracts aren't gambling. They serve real purposes, like hedging risks or discovering prices for uncertain events. For example, I might want to hedge against policy changes that could affect healthcare costs or insurance rules, which directly impact my work and family. Labeling these contracts as "gaming," as discussed in Questions 15-22 of the ANPR, feels wrong to me. It's more like investing with research and judgment, not rolling dice.
I'm also worried about what happens if we over-regulate or ban these markets. Regulated platforms like Kalshi, operating under CFTC oversight, are far safer than unregulated offshore sites. If we push activity overseas by being too restrictive, we lose oversight and put people at risk. On top of that, the US should be leading in financial innovation, not handing the advantage to other countries. I think Questions 7-14 on public interest hit on this balance, and I urge you to prioritize innovation alongside consumer protection.
I understand there are concerns about manipulation or insider trading, but the CFTC already has tools to address those issues. Banning or severely limiting prediction markets punishes everyone for the actions of a few bad actors. Instead, focus on enforcing existing laws and adapting safeguards, as raised in Questions 29-32 about inside information.
I respectfully ask that the CFTC support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Don't ban or over-restrict them. Let people like me participate in a legal, transparent system that benefits society through better information and economic tools. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Kendra Liddell
