Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Hanno Fichtner, and I'm a trader and investor based in California. I've been actively trading on prediction markets like Kalshi for a while now, and Im writing to express my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I believe these markets provide unique value to individuals like me and to society as a whole, and I urge the CFTC to adopt a balanced, proportionate approach to regulating them rather than imposing overly restrictive rules or broad bans.
As a trader, Ive seen firsthand how prediction markets offer information thats simply not available elsewhere. Their forecasts on elections and other public events consistently outperform polls and pundits. This isnt just helpful for those of us who trade; its valuable for anyone trying to understand whats likely to happen, from journalists to policymakers. Ive used these insights to make better decisions in my own investments, often looking at election outcomes or policy shifts that could impact markets Im active in. Beyond personal use, I think democratizing access to this kind of data is a net positive. Its not gambling, either. Trading on Kalshi requires research and judgment, just like trading stocks or futures. These event contracts serve real economic purposes, like price discovery and hedging, and shouldnt be lumped in with gaming.
Im also concerned about U.S. competitiveness in financial innovation. If we over-regulate or ban prediction markets, we risk pushing activity to unregulated offshore platforms, which are far less safe for consumers. Id much rather trade on a regulated market like Kalshi, where there are protections in place, than be forced to turn to sketchy alternatives. The CFTC already has strong tools to tackle issues like manipulation and insider trading in other derivatives markets. I believe those can be adapted here without resorting to heavy-handed restrictions. The U.S. should be leading the way in this space, not ceding ground to other countries.
On specific points raised in the ANPR, Id like to address Questions 7 and 8 under Public Interest. I believe prediction markets do serve the public good through accurate forecasting and risk management, and the CFTC can balance innovation with consumer protection by focusing on targeted rules rather than categorical bans. Additionally, regarding Questions 15 and 16 under Listed Activities, I urge the Commission not to classify these contracts as gaming. Theyre fundamentally different due to their economic utility.
I understand there are concerns about potential abuses, like insider trading. But punishing everyone by shutting down or overly restricting these markets isnt the answer. Focus on enforcing existing laws and crafting specific safeguards instead. I strongly support the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets, and I ask the CFTC to regulate prediction markets in a way that preserves their benefits while addressing risks proportionately.
Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Hanno Fichtner
