Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Megan Andrews, and I'm just an everyday citizen from Pennsylvania writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've used prediction markets a few times myself, and I believe they have real value for people like me and for society as a whole. I want to urge the CFTC to support well-regulated prediction markets rather than banning or overly restricting them.
I first got interested in prediction markets because I was tired of relying on polls and pundits who often get things wrong. Whether it's an election or some big economic decision, the forecasts on platforms like Kalshi have been more accurate in my experience. That kind of information isn't just helpful for traders; it's useful for anyone trying to make sense of the world. I think having better data out there benefits public decision-making, and we should encourage it, not shut it down.
I also want to stress that event contracts aren't gambling. When I trade on a prediction market, I'm putting in time to research and think about real-world events, just like I would with any investment. It's not a game of chance; it's about judgment. Classifying these contracts as "gaming" feels wrong when they serve real purposes like price discovery. Plus, informed traders actually make the market better by improving the accuracy of prices, which helps everyone involved.
I'm worried about what happens if the CFTC over-restricts these markets. I've read about unregulated offshore platforms, and they seem far riskier than a regulated market like Kalshi. If we ban or limit prediction markets here, people will just go to those unsafe places instead. The US should be leading the way in financial innovation, not pushing it overseas. I also believe the CFTC already has strong tools to handle issues like manipulation and insider trading. There's no need to ban entire markets when you can target the bad actors with existing rules.
Looking at some of the specific questions in the ANPR, I think Question 8 about balancing innovation and consumer protection is key. Regulation should focus on safety without stifling new ideas. Also, on Question 15 about defining gaming versus legitimate markets, I strongly believe event contracts have economic value and shouldn't be lumped in with gambling.
I hope the CFTC will create proportionate rules that allow prediction markets to thrive under oversight. Don't let a few potential risks lead to bans that hurt regular people like me who value these tools. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Megan Andrews
