Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Brandon Hawora, and I'm a healthcare professional from California. I'm writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I'm relatively new to prediction markets, but I strongly support their development under fair and proportionate regulation by the CFTC. I believe these markets offer unique benefits to society, and I want to ensure regular people like me have the freedom to participate in legal, regulated platforms.
As someone who works in healthcare, I value accurate information and data transparency. I've seen how prediction markets can produce forecasts that often beat polls or pundits when it comes to elections or public events. This isn't just helpful for traders; it gives everyone better information to make decisions, whether that's policymakers or just citizens trying to understand what's coming next. I think this ties directly to the CFTC's questions on public interest, like Question 7, about balancing innovation with consumer protection. I believe supporting these markets serves the public good by improving price discovery and forecasting.
I also worry about the idea of classifying event contracts as gaming, as raised in Questions 15 and 16. These contracts aren't gambling to me; they serve real economic purposes, like helping people hedge risks or make sense of uncertain events. Treating them as gaming feels like a misstep when they require research and judgment, much like any other investment. Plus, regulated platforms like Kalshi are far safer than unregulated offshore sites. If we ban or over-restrict these markets, as discussed in Questions 23 and 24 on procedural aspects, I fear activity will just move to less safe venues outside the CFTC's oversight. That helps no one.
On the topic of manipulation and insider trading, mentioned in Questions 29 through 32, I think the CFTC already has strong tools to address bad actors. Informed trading often improves price discovery, benefiting all participants, and existing laws can handle misconduct without shutting down entire markets. Broad bans or harsh restrictions punish the wrong people. Instead, targeted rules make more sense, focusing on specific risks rather than whole categories.
Finally, I'm concerned about U.S. competitiveness, as touched on in some of the cost-benefit questions like 33 and 38. We should be leading in financial innovation, not ceding ground to other countries. Prediction markets are a chance for the U.S. to set the standard with smart regulation, not fall behind with heavy-handed limits.
I urge the CFTC to support prediction markets with proportionate rules that protect consumers while allowing regular people to participate. Please don't ban or overly restrict these valuable tools. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Brandon Hawora
