Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Bruno Zheng, and I'm just an everyday citizen from California writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've used prediction markets a few times, and I believe they have real value for people like me. I want to urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of these markets rather than banning or overly restricting them.
I first got interested in prediction markets because I wanted better information about elections and public events. Polls and news pundits are often all over the place, but prediction market prices seem to cut through the noise. They give a clearer picture of what might happen, and that's helpful not just for traders but for anyone trying to understand the world. I also appreciate the academic research behind these markets. Studies show they aggregate information really well, and I think transparency in data like this benefits everyone.
What worries me is the idea of shutting down or heavily limiting these markets in the US. I've used platforms like Kalshi, which is regulated by the CFTC, and it feels safe knowing there are rules and oversight in place. If you ban or over-restrict these markets, people aren't going to stop trading. They'll just move to unregulated offshore platforms where there's no protection at all. That seems like a step backward. I'd much rather see the CFTC keep these markets here, under your watch, where you can address any issues directly.
I also think the US should be a leader in financial innovation. We shouldn't let other countries take the lead on something that could be a powerful tool for forecasting and risk management. If we push this industry away, we're handing the future to someone else. Addressing some of the specific questions in the ANPR, like those in Topic B on public interest (Questions 7-14), I believe the balance between innovation and consumer protection lies in smart regulation, not prohibition. And on Topic C about listed activities (Questions 15-22), I hope you'll avoid broad bans and focus on specific risks instead.
I'm not saying there aren't concerns. I get that insider trading or manipulation could be issues, but the CFTC already has tools to handle those in other markets. Use them here too. Banning prediction markets to stop a few bad actors feels like punishing everyone else whos just trying to participate legally.
I strongly support the freedom to engage in regulated prediction markets. Please craft rules that keep these markets accessible, safe, and under US jurisdiction. Don't let heavy restrictions or outright bans push this valuable tool offshore.
Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Bruno Zheng
