Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Peter Villalobos, and I'm a trader and investor based in Texas. I've been actively trading on prediction markets like Kalshi for a while now, and Im writing to express my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I believe these markets provide unique value, and I urge the CFTC to regulate them proportionately rather than impose bans or overly restrictive rules.
As someone who trades regularly, I value the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Prediction markets aren't just a hobby for me; theyre a way to engage with real-world events and make informed decisions based on research and analysis. Platforms like Kalshi offer a transparent, safe space to do this, with oversight that ensures fairness. I've seen firsthand how these markets aggregate information in ways polls or pundits can't match. The prices reflect collective wisdom, and thats useful to everyone, not just traders like me.
What worries me is the risk of over-regulation or outright bans. If the CFTC restricts these markets too heavily, it won't stop people from participating; itll just push activity to unregulated offshore platforms. I've looked at some of those sites, and they lack the safeguards and accountability of a CFTC-registered platform like Kalshi. Theres no question in my mind that regulated markets are far safer for participants and better for maintaining integrity. Banning or over-restricting prediction markets doesn't solve problems; it creates new ones by driving activity into less transparent spaces.
I also believe the United States should lead in financial innovation. We have the opportunity to set the standard for how prediction markets operate globally. If we stifle them here, other countries will step in, and we'll lose the chance to shape this growing industry. I'm particularly drawn to the questions in your ANPR under Topic B (Public Interest, Questions 7-14) about balancing innovation with consumer protection. I think the answer lies in targeted rules that address specific risks like manipulation, which the CFTC already has tools to handle, rather than broad prohibitions.
I understand concerns about insider trading or market abuse, but those issues are already illegal and enforceable under existing laws. Shutting down an entire market to stop a few bad actors punishes honest participants like me who rely on these platforms for information and opportunity.
I respectfully ask the CFTC to support proportionate regulation that allows prediction markets to thrive under clear, fair rules. Lets keep these markets safe and accessible here in the US, and lets lead the way in innovation. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Peter Villalobos
