Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Ayman Antwan, and I'm a business owner based in California. I run a small logistics company, and Ive been actively trading on prediction markets like Kalshi for the past couple of years. Im writing to comment on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets, and I want to share why I think theyre valuable, both for me personally and for society as a whole.
As a business owner, I deal with a lot of uncertainty. Things like regulatory changes, economic shifts, or even election outcomes can directly impact my costs and planning. Trading on prediction markets has become a tool for me to hedge some of that risk. For instance, Ive placed trades on events tied to potential tariff changes that could affect my shipping costs. This isnt just a game to me. Its a practical way to protect my business. I dont see this as gambling at all. It takes research, analysis, and real-world judgment, much like any other investment I make for my company. Labeling event contracts as gaming feels completely off base when they serve such clear economic purposes.
I also want to touch on the value of informed trading, which I believe improves price discovery for everyone. When people like me, or others with specific knowledge, trade on these platforms, were contributing to more accurate pricing of events. That benefits not just traders but anyone who looks at these markets for insight, whether its journalists, policymakers, or other businesses. Ive seen firsthand how prediction markets often predict outcomes better than polls or pundits. Thats information we cant get anywhere else. Addressing Question 29 from your ANPR, I think informed traders absolutely help price discovery. The solution isnt to restrict who can trade but to ensure existing laws against insider trading are enforced.
I understand there are concerns about manipulation or unfair advantages. Those are real issues, but the CFTC already has tools to tackle them. Market manipulation is illegal, and so is trading on nonpublic information for federal employees. Shutting down or over-restricting prediction markets because of a few bad actors punishes everyone else whos using these tools responsibly. Its like closing a highway because some people speed.
I urge you to support proportionate regulation that keeps prediction markets accessible while addressing specific risks with targeted rules. Dont ban or overly restrict them. Theyre a valuable resource for small business owners like me, and they provide unique information to the public. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Ayman Antwan
