Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is DharaniDhar Kotlapati, and I'm a software engineer based in North Carolina. I'm writing to share my support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I'm relatively new to these markets, but as someone who works in tech and values data-driven decision-making, I see immense potential in them for individuals like me and for society as a whole.
I believe prediction markets offer something unique: forecasts that often beat polls or pundits in accuracy. In my field, we rely on the best data to make decisions, and prediction markets aggregate information in a way thats hard to replicate. This isnt just helpful for traders; its valuable for anyone trying to understand public events like elections or economic shifts. Beyond that, these markets let regular people hedge real financial risks. For instance, as someone who follows policy changes that could impact tech regulations or taxes, Id value the ability to offset uncertainties that affect my income or career planning.
Im also a strong believer in personal freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Platforms like Kalshi, operating under CFTC oversight, are far safer than unregulated offshore alternatives. Banning or over-restricting these markets would only push activity to less transparent venues, which helps no one. Instead, the US should lead in financial innovation. Were a hub for tech and progress; ceding this space to other countries feels like a missed opportunity.
I know there are concerns about manipulation or insider trading, and I get that. But the CFTC already has solid tools to tackle these issues in other derivatives markets. Why not adapt those instead of imposing broad bans? Targeted, proportionate regulation makes more sense to me. I also dont see event contracts as gambling. They serve real purposes, like hedging and price discovery, much like other investments I research and follow. Plus, informed trading only sharpens the accuracy of these markets, benefiting everyone.
Id like to address a few specific questions from the ANPR. On Questions 7-14 under Public Interest, I think the balance should favor innovation with strong consumer protections through regulation, not prohibition. On Questions 15-22 about Listed Activities, I urge the CFTC to avoid labeling these contracts as gaming; theyre economic tools. And on Questions 29-32 regarding Inside Information, I believe informed trading often improves price discovery, as long as existing laws against insider abuse are enforced.
I ask that the CFTC support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Dont ban or overly restrict them. Lets keep these markets safe, accessible, and innovative right here in the US. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
DharaniDhar Kotlapati
