Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Nicholas Pastrana, and I'm a software engineer based in Florida. Im writing to share my support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). As someone who actively trades on platforms like Kalshi, Ive seen firsthand how these markets provide unique value, and I believe the CFTC should encourage their growth with smart, proportionate regulation rather than restrictive bans.
Prediction markets offer information thats hard to find anywhere else. Ive noticed their forecasts on elections and public events are often more accurate than polls or pundits. As a tech professional, I value data-driven insights, and these markets aggregate real-world knowledge in a way that benefits not just traders like me, but anyone who relies on good information, from policymakers to everyday citizens. They also help with hedging real financial risks. For instance, Ive used Kalshi to offset uncertainties tied to economic events that could impact my personal finances or side projects. This isnt gambling; its a practical tool that takes research and judgment, much like traditional investing.
Im also concerned about what happens if these markets are over-restricted. Regulated platforms like Kalshi offer consumer protections and transparency that offshore alternatives simply dont. If the CFTC bans or overly limits prediction markets, activity will just move to unregulated spaces, which is worse for everyone. The US has a chance to lead in financial innovation here. We shouldnt cede that ground to other countries by stifling a growing industry, especially when prediction markets could be a lucrative opportunity for Americans and our economy, second perhaps only to the AI boom.
Id like to address a few specific questions from the ANPR. On Questions 7-14 regarding public interest, I believe prediction markets serve a clear public good through price discovery and better forecasting. They democratize access to information, and informed trading only improves that process. On Questions 15-22 about listed activities, I strongly feel event contracts shouldnt be classified as gaming. They have legitimate economic purposes like hedging and risk management. And on Questions 29-32 about inside information, I think the CFTC already has strong tools to tackle manipulation and insider trading. The answer isnt banning markets; its enforcing existing laws.
I urge the CFTC to adopt targeted, proportionate regulations that address specific risks without broad categorical restrictions. Lets keep prediction markets legal, safe, and accessible on regulated platforms. Punishing the majority for the actions of a few bad actors makes no sense, and I believe the benefits of these markets far outweigh the challenges if handled right.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Nicholas Pastrana
