Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Joshua Carr, and I'm a regular citizen from Louisiana. I help manage a small business here, and in my spare time, I enjoy investing in fast-moving markets like sports. I'm writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I'm new to prediction markets, but I strongly support their existence and believe they should be regulated fairly, not banned or overly restricted.
As someone who runs a small business, I know how important it is to have access to good information. Prediction markets offer something unique: forecasts that are often more accurate than polls or pundits. I've seen how unreliable traditional predictions can be, whether it's about elections or economic trends that affect my business. Prediction markets cut through the noise by aggregating what people really think, based on where they put their money. That kind of insight isn't just helpful for traders; it's valuable for everyone, including small business owners like me who need to plan ahead.
I also believe in the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Prediction markets aren't gambling in my view. They take research and judgment, just like any other kind of investing I do. Shutting regular folks like me out of these markets would only benefit big institutions, keeping the best information in their hands. That's not fair, and it doesn't help make the markets more accurate. I want the chance to take part, especially under clear CFTC oversight to keep things above board.
I'm particularly drawn to your questions on public interest, like Question 7 about balancing innovation with consumer protection. I think prediction markets are an innovative tool that can benefit society through better forecasting, as long as there are sensible rules to prevent manipulation or fraud. You already have laws against insider trading and market manipulation, so I don't see why entire markets should be restricted just because of a few potential bad actors. Use the tools you have to target the problems, not punish everyone.
I also relate to Question 15 on defining what kinds of activities should be listed. These markets aren't just games; they can help people like me hedge risks tied to real-world events that impact my business, like policy changes or economic shifts. They deserve to be treated as legitimate financial tools.
In closing, I urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Don't ban or over-restrict them. Let everyday citizens like me participate in a regulated, transparent system that benefits society through better information. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Joshua Carr
