Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Austin Wilburn, and I'm a software engineer from Colorado. Im writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I actively trade on platforms like Kalshi, and I strongly support the CFTC developing fair, proportionate regulations for prediction markets rather than banning or over-restricting them.
As someone in tech, I see prediction markets as a powerful tool for innovation and information. I've used Kalshi to trade on election outcomes and economic events, like inflation data releases, because the prices often give me a clearer picture than polls or news pundits. I remember last year, during a tight Senate race, the market odds on Kalshi were way more accurate than the so-called expert forecasts. That kind of real-time data isn't just useful for me as a trader; it helps everyone, from journalists to policymakers, make better decisions. Plus, Ive used these markets to hedge personal financial risks, like betting against certain policy outcomes that could impact my freelance tech projects. This isn't gambling. It takes research and judgment, just like trading stocks or futures.
I also believe the US should be a leader in financial innovation. If we over-restrict prediction markets, we risk pushing activity to unregulated offshore platforms, which are far less safe for consumers like me. Regulated markets like Kalshi have oversight and transparency, and I'd much rather trade there than on some sketchy foreign site. The CFTC already has strong tools to handle manipulation and insider trading in other derivatives markets. I trust those can be applied here without needing broad bans that punish honest participants.
On some of the specific questions in the ANPR, I want to weigh in on a few points. For Question 7 under Public Interest, I think prediction markets clearly serve the public good through better price discovery and risk management. Informed traders improve the accuracy of these markets, benefiting everyone, not just those trading. On Question 15 about gaming, I strongly feel event contracts aren't gambling; they have real economic purposes like hedging and forecasting. And for Question 29 on inside information, I believe the focus should be on enforcing existing laws against insider trading rather than restricting entire markets.
I understand there are concerns about manipulation or bad actors, but shutting down or over-regulating prediction markets isn't the answer. It just pushes people like me to riskier alternatives. Instead, I urge the CFTC to craft rules that protect consumers while allowing these markets to grow. Lets keep the US at the forefront of financial tech and ensure regular folks can participate in safe, regulated platforms.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Austin Wilburn
