Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Kshitij Bathla, and I'm a software engineer based in California. I work in the tech industry, where staying ahead of trends and understanding probabilities is part of my daily life. Im writing to express my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I actively trade on platforms like Kalshi, and Ive seen firsthand how these markets provide valuable insights and tools that arent available anywhere else.
As someone who crunches data for a living, Im amazed at how prediction markets consistently outperform polls and pundits in forecasting real-world events. Whether its an election outcome or an economic indicator, the aggregated wisdom of these markets often cuts through the noise. This isnt just useful for traders like me; its valuable information for the public, media, and even policymakers. I also use these markets to hedge personal financial risks, like timing decisions around interest rate changes or inflation data that impact my savings and investments. This isnt gambling. Its a legitimate economic tool, no different from using futures to manage risk, and classifying event contracts as gaming ignores their real purpose.
Im also concerned about U.S. competitiveness. Tech innovation is my world, and I believe the U.S. should be leading in financial innovation too. If we over-restrict prediction markets, we risk pushing activity to unregulated offshore platforms that lack oversight. Id much rather trade on a regulated market like Kalshi, where there are safeguards, than see this space ceded to less safe venues abroad. On that note, I appreciate the CFTCs focus on insider trading and manipulation risks, as raised in Questions 29-32 of the ANPR. I believe informed trading actually improves price discovery and benefits everyone in the market, but bad actors should be targeted with existing laws, not broad bans that punish legitimate participants.
Regarding Questions 15-22 on listed activities, I urge you not to treat event contracts as gaming. They serve real purposes like hedging and information aggregation. And in response to Questions 7-14 on public interest, I believe the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets is a net positive for society, balancing innovation with consumer protection through proportionate rules, not categorical prohibitions.
Prediction markets are a powerful tool for people like me to manage uncertainty and access better data. I ask the CFTC to support their growth with targeted, fair regulation that addresses specific risks without stifling this emerging space. Lets keep the U.S. at the forefront of innovation.
Sincerely,
Kshitij Bathla
