Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Rodney Hudson, and I'm a student from Alabama writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I actively trade on platforms like Kalshi, and I strongly support the development of well-regulated prediction markets in the United States. I believe they offer unique value to people like me and to society as a whole, and I hope the CFTC will craft rules that encourage innovation while protecting consumers.
As a student, Ive found prediction markets to be an incredible tool for understanding the world. Ive traded on election outcomes and other public events, and the forecasts I see on these platforms are often more accurate than what I hear from polls or pundits on TV. That information isnt just helpful for traders; its useful for anyone trying to make sense of whats coming next. Ive also used these markets to hedge small personal risks, like potential changes in policy that could affect my student loans or part-time job. Its not gambling to me. Its a way to think critically about real-world events and protect myself financially, just like people do with stocks or commodities.
Im worried, though, that over-restricting or banning these markets would push activity to unregulated offshore platforms. I trade on Kalshi because its regulated by the CFTC, and I feel safer knowing theres oversight. If that option goes away, people like me might turn to sketchy alternatives with no protections. I also think the U.S. should be a leader in financial innovation. We shouldnt let other countries take the lead while we hold back. Prediction markets can improve price discovery, too. When informed traders participate, the prices reflect better information, and that benefits everyone, not just those trading.
I want to address a couple of specific questions from the ANPR. On Question 7, about balancing innovation and consumer protection, I think regulated markets like Kalshi already strike a good balance, and the CFTC should build on that instead of imposing broad bans. On Question 15, regarding whether event contracts are gaming, I strongly believe theyre not. They serve real economic purposes like hedging and forecasting, which are far different from a casino game. And on Question 29, about inside information, I think the CFTCs existing tools to prevent manipulation and insider trading are enough. The answer isnt to shut down markets but to enforce the rules you already have.
I know there are concerns about manipulation or bad actors, and those are valid. But banning or over-restricting prediction markets punishes regular folks like me who use them responsibly. Targeted, proportionate regulation can address those risks without throwing out the benefits. Im honestly amazed at how powerful these tools are for forecasting and managing uncertainty, and I hope youll support their growth.
Thank you for considering my perspective. I urge the CFTC to adopt balanced rules that allow prediction markets to thrive under fair oversight.
Sincerely,
Rodney Hudson
